For the purposes of this rating system, we treat China's NDC commitment as unconditional, as it has not indicated a level of ambition that would be achieved with international support (a conditional NDC target). China’s climate commitments in 2030 are also rated as “Highly Insufficient” as emission levels expected under the most binding peaking NDC targets are compatible with warming levels of between 3☌ and 4☌ by the end of the century, if all countries followed this ambition. The CAT keeps China with an overall rating of “Highly Insufficient”. Due to the size of China’s emissions, this difference can make up to 0.1☌ more (CO 2 ) or less (all GHGs) warming in 2100. In the wake of the illegal and unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine, China is likely to double down even more on energy security with a multi-pronged approach: building domestic fossil and renewable production capacity at an accelerated rate and establishing a diverse portfolio for energy imports, both from the development of overseas projects and increase in (discounted) energy cooperation with Russia.Ĭhina’s Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS/LTS) submitted to the UNFCCC in October 2021 strongly suggests that the carbon neutrality target covers carbon dioxide only previously the CAT had analysed the target as if it covered all greenhouse gases as claimed by Xie Zhenhua and Tsinghua University. Energy from non-fossil sources in China needs to grow by around 13% by 2025 and 52% by 2030 (from 2020 levels) to achieve its FYP and NDC targets. However, renewable energy will also continue to be a national priority in parallel installed capacity for renewables surpassed 1,000 GW in 2021. The continued short and medium-term reliance on coal and fossils was emphasised in March 2022 in both China’s “Two Sessions”, the annual plenary sessions of two of China’s major political bodies, and the newly published 14th FYP for the energy sector. In 2021, China produced its highest-ever annual output in coal production. The pledge could result in the cancellation of 43 GW of new coal projects across Asia, including no new coal projects in countries such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. China has also pledged to end financing for building coal plants overseas, with 2021 marking the first year since 2000 that China’s two global policy banks provided no new energy finance commitments to international governments. By the end of 2021, however, China had seemingly completely reneged on this strategy to focus on shoring up coal (and other fossil fuels) supply off the back of energy security and shortage concerns. In 2020–2021, China began toning down its outlook on coal, highlighted by President Xi Jinping when he announced that China will strictly control coal consumption until 2025 and start to gradually phase it down thereafter. We estimate China’s emissions have risen 3.4% to 14.1 GtCO 2 e in 2021 due to a large spike in energy demand as the country’s pandemic recovery continues-this is concerning as power consumption has been projected to rise 5–6% in the upcoming year. We rate China's current policies as “Insufficient” to meet the Paris agreement’s 1.5° C limit, and are more consistent with a global warming of 3° C. The CAT current policies scenario, which incorporates China’s latest policies and guidance as well as technological trends, shows that growth in non-fossil energy shares and solar and wind capacity installations will surpass the country’s official NDC targets.Ĭhina’s updated NDC target remains “Highly insufficient” and if all countries followed the level of ambition implicit in this development, it would lead to a warming of 3° C degrees globally. We project that China is likely to comfortably overachieve its targets without substantially increasing its current mitigation efforts, despite increasing emissions in the short-term.Ĭhina’s international targets are supported by its Working Guidance for Carbon Dioxide Peaking and Carbon Neutrality and Action Plan For Carbon Dioxide Peaking Before 2030, as well as the 14th Five Year Plan (FYP), which includes energy and carbon intensity reduction targets, as well as energy targets such as non-fossil shares for energy and electricity sectors. However, while China’s updated NDC was an improvement on previous targets, it leaves room for further target-raising ambition. Ahead of COP26 in November 2021, China officially submitted to the UNFCCC its carbon neutrality “before 2060” target and updated NDC targets, strengthening its previous non-fossil share and carbon intensity targets, while adding a new renewable energy capacity target.
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